Storms Evolve: As Cyclone Andrea Dissipates, a Tropical Threat Emerges in the Pacific

Cyclone Andrea Dissipates

EP95 may become a tropical storm

NHC forecasts cyclone formation in the Pacific

Cyclone Andrea, the first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, has rapidly weakened following its brief stint as a tropical storm.

Its transition into a post-tropical cyclone offers a short-lived break in the Atlantic, while the eastern Pacific begins to show more troubling signs.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a low-pressure system off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico is under close observation.

Meteorologists have designated the system as EP95, and say its behavior suggests it could develop into a tropical depression — or even a tropical storm — in the coming days.

Conditions Favor Cyclone Formation

Photo: Shutterstock – Cyclone Andrea dissipates as a new tropical threat emerges

The system is located several hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala, and its showers and thunderstorms are becoming more organized.

Environmental conditions — including sea surface temperature, upper-level winds, and humidity — appear favorable for its gradual development.

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The most recent forecast shows this system drifting slowly west-northwest, following a path near Mexico’s southern coast.

Predictions also suggest that it could intensify over the weekend, coinciding with a period of increased climate vulnerability in the region.

What Happened to Tropical Storm Andrea?

The NHC estimates that EP95 has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

Although it has not yet been named, its potential to become the first major storm of the 2025 Pacific season makes it a key concern for meteorologists and regional civil protection systems.

Andrea, for its part, officially formed on June 24, briefly reached tropical storm status, and then rapidly weakened.

By Tuesday night, the NHC reported that its maximum sustained winds had dropped to 35 mph, with occasional stronger gusts.

Hurricane Season Has Just Begun

Andrea’s dissipation is expected to continue without major impacts, leaving behind a relatively calm atmospheric pattern in the Atlantic.

That pattern, according to experts, has been maintained by upper atmospheric conditions that have limited storm development in that basin.

However, those same conditions are now acting as catalysts in the eastern Pacific, supporting the formation of active systems like EP95.

Path prediction models — often referred to as “spaghetti models” — are already showing potential routes for the system’s center, although with a wide margin of error.

The Cone of Uncertainty

The National Hurricane Center warns that these projections do not reflect the storm’s total size or full range of possible impacts.

In fact, in roughly 33% of cases, the storm’s center may shift outside the forecast cone depicted on the maps.

This means communities located outside the visible cone could still be affected if the system intensifies.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Cyclonic Potential of EP95

According to NOAA, 97% of annual tropical activity occurs within this timeframe, with a seasonal peak around September 10.

Most tropical energy is concentrated between mid-August and mid-October, meaning current systems could be just the beginning of an active season.

Meanwhile, Mexican and Central American authorities have already been alerted to the cyclonic potential of EP95, due to risks of torrential rain, landslides, and coastal impacts.

The next NHC updates will be crucial in determining whether the system receives an official name — which would make it the second named storm in the region this year, according to USA Today.